Pre-sale agreement

Trading can and does lose money

Trading leveraged cryptocurrency derivatives can lose you more than you put in. Prices move against positions, leverage multiplies both directions, and positions can be liquidated automatically with no opportunity to intervene. You may lose some, all, or in a leveraged account more than the capital you commit.

Nothing sold here changes that. The software is a tool that places orders according to rules; it does not predict prices, it cannot avoid losses, and it will lose money during some periods by design. If you are not prepared to lose the capital you would give it, do not buy it and do not run it.

Every figure published here comes from a backtest

All performance figures published for these products — on this site, in the documentation and in the research record — are produced by historical simulation over past market data.

Simulated results carry known biases. They are computed with the benefit of knowing what the market did next, they assume orders filled that may not have filled, and they are chosen and refined by a person who could see the answer while choosing. Every step taken here to reduce those biases is documented, and none of them eliminates the category. Backtested performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The specific numbers you should weigh

These are the least flattering true facts about APEX. They are stated here rather than only in the package, so that you read them before paying rather than after.

• Maximum drawdown −71.6%. At the highest setting the software allows — 0.50% risk and 12 open positions — the simulated account fell 71.6% from its peak. An account that had grown to $100,000 would have been worth about $28,400 before recovering. At 0.50% with 8 positions the figure is −69.1%; at the 0.25% setting that ships it is −42.0%. With no limit on open positions, the research record shows −71.9% and −44.6%.
• Win rate 21.0%. Roughly four trades in five lose. The strategy is profitable in simulation because the winners are much larger, not because it is often right. Around half of all months finish positive, and the longest stretch below a previous equity high was 486 days.
• Longest losing run: 80 consecutive trades. A run of that length is normal for this strategy, not a malfunction.
• Worst month −29.0% at the 0.50% setting.
• The instrument was selected. ADA was the best of a nine-coin panel on edge, t-statistic, return and consistency, though not on drawdown or win rate, and four of those nine lose money. The research record states that its margin over the median coin is “inseparable from hindsight”.
• The edge does not survive full statistical deflation. Correcting the headline for everything that was searched — the ten-value reward-to-risk sweep and the choice of coin — gives a Deflated Sharpe Ratio of about 0.42 against a conventional threshold of 0.95. It does not clear that bar.
• The out-of-sample test does not cover the configuration sold. The walk-forward result (t = 3.38, train 2020–23, test 2024–26) was run on the base short-drift — the underlying behaviour — not on the specific configuration whose headline figures are published. Those are full-sample. That 3.38 is also priced at maker-0 fees, a level no venue has delivered; charged the costs this product actually uses, the same test half is t = 2.42 (+0.1138 R against the full sample’s +0.1431).
• Fill rates are modelled, not yet measured. Every trade is charged a measured cost for resting at the back of the order-book queue, but whether live orders fill as often as the backtest assumes is not yet measured, and the package says so on its first page.
• CARRY’s yield is decaying. Its two-year average is +4.88% (BTC) / +4.91% (ETH) unlevered, but 2026 funding alone, before basis and costs, ran at +1.00% / +0.35%. Reaching the double-digit yields quoted for it requires leverage, and the chance of liquidation rises far faster than the yield does.

Test it small before you trust it

You agree to run the software on a test or minimally funded account first, until you are satisfied it behaves as you expect on your own exchange, with your own credentials, at your own settings — before committing capital you are unwilling to lose.

This is not a formality. The software places real orders on a real account from the moment it is armed. No amount of historical simulation establishes how a particular venue, fee tier, or configuration will behave in your hands, and the differences between a backtest and a live account are documented rather than guessed at.

What you are buying, and what you are not

You are buying a perpetual licence to software, its source, and the research record behind it. You install and run it on your own machine and your own exchange account.

You are not buying a managed fund, a signal service, a subscription, or advice. Nobody trades on your behalf. You keep custody of your funds at all times; the seller never holds your money, never places an order for you, and takes no share of any profit. Nothing published here is investment advice, financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation, and the seller is not your broker, adviser, fiduciary or agent.

Support, and when a refund is available

The software and its complete source and research record are delivered in full on purchase and cannot be returned, so sales are final as a general rule. Three things qualify that.

If a published figure does not reproduce, that is a refund. Every APEX figure that python3 -m apex.cli verify checks — the headline claims and all 560 cells of the results table — is regenerated by the harness that ships with the product. If one of them does not reproduce on your own machine from the data the package fetches, the fee is returned (APEX licence clause 10.8). The same holds for CARRY: every figure python3 -m carry.cli verify checks is regenerated from the market data that ships in the package, and if one does not reproduce, the fee is returned (CARRY licence clause 10.8). This one is not discretionary.

Support comes first. If the software does not work as documented, write to apexstoa@proton.me. The problem will be investigated and, where it is a defect, fixed by an update.

Where a defect cannot be fixed, a refund may be issued. If a fault in the software cannot be resolved by any update or assistance that can be provided, the fee may be refunded in whole or in part, at the seller’s discretion, exercised in good faith. That is a genuine remedy and it is not an unconditional guarantee.

A refund is not available where the software works as documented and the difficulty is in your own configuration, credentials, exchange choice, hardware or operating environment; nor for trading losses of any size; nor because you have changed your mind about the strategy, its figures, or its risk. Where mandatory consumer law in your country grants you a right of withdrawal, that right applies according to its own terms and nothing here removes it.

Your right to cancel, and why you are asked to give it up

If you are a consumer in the EU or the UK, the law gives you 14 days to withdraw from a distance purchase without giving a reason. For most things you send the item back. This is a download — the complete source code and the entire research record arrive at once, and there is no version of them you can return.

The law provides for exactly that situation. The right can end early, but only if you ask for delivery to start inside the 14 days and acknowledge that asking ends the right. That is what the last checkbox at checkout is, and it is worded that way deliberately:

“I expressly request that Apexstoa begin supplying the software and research files immediately, before the 14-day withdrawal period has ended, and I acknowledge that I lose my right of withdrawal once the download begins.”

Until the download begins, you can still cancel. Write to apexstoa@proton.me — any clear statement is enough, and the form below is offered only for convenience. You will be refunded in full, using the same means of payment, without undue delay and no later than 14 days after you tell us, and the download links for your order are switched off.

Because you asked for delivery to start at once and acknowledged that this ends the right, the right to cancel ends once the download begins. The delivery email confirms that request in writing, with the time you gave it. It does not affect anything else. If the software is defective, section 06 above and the licence still apply, and nothing here removes a right your own country's law makes mandatory.

To: Apexstoa, apexstoa@proton.me

I hereby give notice that I withdraw from my contract for the
supply of the following digital content:

  Order number ......................................
  Ordered on ........................................
  Name of consumer ..................................
  Address of consumer ...............................

  Signature (only if sent on paper) .................
  Date ..............................................

Your responsibilities

You are responsible for determining that using this software is lawful where you live, for all tax and regulatory consequences of your trading, for the security of your exchange API credentials, and for every configuration value and risk setting you choose. You are responsible for deciding whether this product suits your circumstances; that assessment has not been made for you and cannot be.

Liability

To the maximum extent permitted by law, the seller is not liable for trading losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, or any indirect or consequential damages, and total liability is limited to the amount you paid. Nothing excludes liability for fraud, fraudulent misrepresentation, or anything else that cannot lawfully be excluded. The full terms are in each product's software licence (APEX, CARRY), which also ships inside its package and governs your use of it.